앵무새 죽이기

equity Posted at 2009/09/21 16:20

투자에 관심이 없는 사람도 앵무새가 펀드매니저를 이겼다는 신문기사를 봤을 것이다. 기사를 읽고 (읽지 않았을 가능성이 더 크다) 주식투자를 하지 않는 자신을 굉장히 자랑스러워한다. 이들이 모르는 어쩌면 알고 싶지 않을 사실들.

1. 앵무새는 10개의 대형우량주 중에서 하나를 고른다. 즉 이 실험은 완전한 무작위 상황이 아니다.

2. 1등은 사람이 했다. 앵무새는 펀드매니저와의 대결에서 상위권에 랭크되었을 뿐 모든 사람을 이기지는 못했다. 몇몇 펀드매니저의 실력이 형편없었다.

따라서 이 작은 이벤트는 주식투자가 도박이라던가 펀드매니저는 믿을 만하지 못하다라는 그들의 생각을 뒷받침해주지 않는다. 논리적인 사람이라면 여기서 그동안 한국 주식 시장이 대형 우량주 위주로 먼저 회복되었다는 사실을 떠 올릴 것이다. 대형주 위주의 펀드, 인덱스펀드, ETF 등이 앵무새와 유사한 성과를 보이고 있다.

2009/09/21 16:20 2009/09/21 16:20

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